I just trashed a perfectly good blog that was ready for publication. As I finished it, I realized that, while perfectly true, the message was NOT what was needed right now, in this moment.

The blog was a perspective on leading change. While we are in the midst of plenty of change,  what is most pressing currently is how to deal with uncertainty, not change.

Let me differentiate.

Change Management

Traditional “change management” encompasses the skills and tools to use when there is a significant, but discreet change. These are changes that have a beginning and an end. Changes that are disruptive to the status quo, yet aim to deliver a point in the future where there is a “new normal”. Examples include new ERP systems or widespread technology implementations, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), or restructuring initiatives.

Change Leadership

“Change leadership” is a set of skills required of leaders in today’s environment, in which change is the steady state. Skills such as agility, innovation, collaboration, and empowerment enable leaders to adapt quickly to both internal and external changes, while maintaining focus and balance. This is what my book, The Leader’s Guide to Turbulent Times addresses.

Uncertainty

The “Uncertainty” we are living in at the moment has a much different flavor, hence the need for a different approach. Today’s environment is best described as extreme uncertainty in the macroenvironment. Today’s leaders are attempting to respond to an avalanche of information, wildly shifting directives, and a significant amount of disinformation. The uncertainty we are dealing with today has the potential to be “make or break” events for many, yet there is little to no clarity about what will actually happen, or even what is highly likely to happen.

Politics

A great deal of the uncertainty is driven by the current US political leadership, who are “flooding the zone” with threats and actions that make long-term business planning and short-term business decisions nearly impossible. Where will tariffs actually land, and what will that mean to the supply chain, the overall economy, and consumers? Will there be an extreme economic slowdown? Perhaps a recession? I could add more, but I know you get the drift!

AI

AI, of course, is gathering steam and brings its own unique contribution to uncertainty at an unprecedented adoption rate. We must also not overlook global conflicts and shifting alliances. 

Business

There is always uncertainty in business. We never know with certainty if consumer behavior will shift, if the economy will rise or fall, and how emerging technologies will impact our operations, our consumers, or our markets. 

Yet this more “traditional” uncertainty typically comes with warning signs. There are leading indicators and trusted sources that help us predict their coming. We’ve weathered these in the past and have strategies to deal with them. 

A good metaphor for what we face is a plane encountering extreme turbulence mid-air. The wind currents are random and beyond our control. The sudden drops are frightening. We think the plane might plummet, and we may die, so our lizard brains kick in immediately.

Tactics

Yet extreme turbulence in the air teaches us these tactics:

The pilot will reduce the aircraft’s airspeed to bring it to the turbulence penetration speed (Vb or Va), thereby minimizing stress on the airframe. They will also maintain level flight to avoid abrupt altitude or heading changes; focus on riding out the turbulence rather than fighting it. Pilots use autopilot wisely and typically disengage it in extreme turbulence to allow for manual control, which provides softer, more responsive handling. The flight crew is in direct communication with Air Traffic Control (ATC), both to report turbulence and to request altitude or route changes if feasible. Attention is then paid to monitoring aircraft systemsfor any anomalies or damage. 

The pilot’s job is to keep the plane aloft during the turbulence. The flight crew adheres to safety protocols for the safety of passengers, as well as their own. And the passengers? Buckle in, stay seated, and sit out the turbulence.

In uncertain times, the senior leadership is well served to do what the pilot does:

• Reduce speed
• Maintain forward and level progress
• Ride out the turbulence, rather than fight it
• Avoid “autopilot” – have your hands on the controls
• Communicate internally
• Reach out externally
• Monitor systems for dysfunction

 

More specifically, here are some concrete actions leaders can take during times of uncertainty:

Lean into Strategic Clarity, Not Certainty

Uncertainty is the time to reaffirm your organization’s purpose, values, and long-term vision. Use them to guide decisions and direction. Steer into them, even if your current flight plan needs to be altered. Clarity about why you’re doing something is more valuable than what the plan was. 

“Bad companies are destroyed by crisis, good companies survive them, great companies are improved by them.”- Simon Sinek

Embrace Scenario Thinking

If you have not already, create three to four possible scenarios. If have done scenario planning in the past, revisit and revise them. Include worst case, best case, and several likely cases. Regularly develop and rehearse multiple plausible futures—not to predict them, but to prepare for them.

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence—it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” –Andy Grove

Rethink Traditional Metrics

Conventional KPIs may not reflect success in uncertain environments. Agility, innovation velocity, resilience, adaptability, customer feedback, and engagement may be more critical metrics. Financials are always important, but may also need to be revised to track cash flow, cash reserves, and access to capital.

“To stay ahead, you must have your next idea waiting in the wings. Bottom-line thinking shrinks horizons. Big-picture thinking expands possibilities.” – Rosabeth Moss Kanter

Adopt Agile and Iterative Decision-Making

Make “small bets” with room to pivot. Use test-and-learn cycles instead of big, irreversible decisions. Trying these “experiments” will keep the organization moving forward while reducing risk and increasing responsiveness to real-time feedback.

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence—it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” –Peter Drucker

Communicate Frequently and Transparently

One of the most essential things the flight crew does for passengers is to provide them with helpful information about the situation and what they need to do. Similarly, being in open dialogue with your employees reduces panic and enables them to do what you most need them to do. It is perfectly OK to admit “not knowing”, while sharing what you ARE doing, even without certainty. Solicit ideas and allow innovation and adaptability to come from all parts of the organization, not just the C-Suite. 

“Vulnerability is the birthplace of innovation, creativity, and change.” – Brené Brown

Collaborate Across Boundaries

In more certain times, you can chart direction and have areas work more independently with proven practices and well-honed processes. In uncertain times, Complex problems demand broader thinking and shared ownership. Find ways to break down silos and co-create solutions with other departments, partners, customers, and at times, even competitors. For a great guide on how to do this, read General Stanley McChrystal’s book, Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World.

“Leadership is not about being in charge. It is about taking care of those in your charge—especially in uncertain times.” – Reid Hoffman

Enhance Sensing Capabilities

In turbulence, pilots seek information from Air Traffic Control. They monitor their instrument panel, but don’t solely rely on it. You, too, need information from a variety of sources, both internal and external. Create communication loops among employees, customers, the market, and peer organizations or leaders. Bottom line: You can’t control the future, but you can get better at seeing it coming. 

“We cannot change what we are not aware of, and once we are aware, we cannot help but change.”-Sheyl Shanberg

Above all, I’d urge you not to despair, but instead to look for the opportunity that uncertainty brings. We can look to these companies, which found their unique contributions during great times of uncertainty and changed the world because of it.

General Motors (Founded 1908 – Panic of 1907)

The auto industry was fragmented. GM saw the potential to consolidate brands and standardize production. William Durant created a holding company, acquiring multiple automakers under one roof (Buick, Cadillac, etc.).  As a result, GM became the world’s largest automaker for much of the 20th century.

Disney (Founded 1923 – Grew through the Great Depression)

Families still craved affordable, escapist entertainment during hard times.  Walt Disney pioneered animation as a cinematic experience, including 1937’s Snow White, the first full-length animated feature. They are now a global entertainment empire.

FedEx (Founded 1971 – Grew during the 1973 Oil Crisis & Recession)

FedEx identified a niche for overnight delivery and time-sensitive logistics and developed a hub-and-spoke system, and invested in air delivery infrastructure. They revolutionized logistics and are now a multi-billion-dollar international shipping company.

Costco (Founded 1983 – Early 1980s Recession)

Consumers had interest in bulk purchasing to save money during inflation. Costco create a membership model, low prices, and streamlined product selection. Outome: one of the largest and most beloved retail chains worldwide.

Airbnb (Founded 2008 – Great Recession)

At this time, people needed extra income, and travelers were looking for cheaper accommodations. Airbnb launched a peer-to-peer platform to rent out rooms and homes, creating a new category in hospitality, now a publicly traded global company.

Warby Parker (Founded 2010 – Post-Recession Era)

Eyewear was expensive and dominated by a few players, so Warby Parker launched a direct-to-consumer model with stylish, affordable glasses and home try-ons. They have built a cult brand, expanded into retail stores, and went public in 2021.

Where is your opportunity?

The reason Apeiron exists is so that you don’t have to go it alone.

The Apeiron network provides expertise in launching and running your professional service business. It provides ongoing professional development, honing your business skills and keeping you current. You are part of a professional network offering support, encouragement, and opportunities to work together on client engagements.

Interested in learning more? Go to Apeiron for Consultants to learn more. If you would like to test Apeiron out, complete the form at the bottom of the page and explore Apeiron for a month as our guest!

Connect with us!

Looking for great consultants that commit to your success? Apeiron provides a one-stop shop to access some of the best consultants in the central Indiana area. Want to learn more? Simply submit the contact form below and we’ll find a time to learn more about your situation and how we might work together.

About the Author: Kris Taylor

Fueled by their shared passion for people-centric organizations that achieve business results, Kris Taylor joined Joe Indiano to found Apeiron, where professionals join together in an abundant, entrepreneurial community to grow sustainable businesses by collaborating together. Bringing together highly skilled consultants across functions, Apeiron is creating the “workplace of the future”, where talented professionals come together to service clients with an agile, collaborative approach to tough business problems.

Kris is also the founder of Evergreen Leadership in 2004 and has worked with over 80 companies across the US to develop customized leadership development programs focused on 21st-century skills.  Evergreen Leadership is known for its high-impact retreats, coaching, and learning programs, specializing in fostering agility, collaboration, relationship building, accountability, creativity, and innovation.

Kris writes, speaks, teaches, and coaches leaders at all levels, from the C-suite to high-potential emerging leaders. She is committed to giving back in meaningful ways, most visibly with Evergreen’s Annual Community Builder Award. Since 2015, fifteen leaders across the mid-west have come together for the Connect and Create Retreat.

Her many years of work experience are rich in variety – beginning in education and non-profit for ten years before making a career change with RR Donnelley. In this Fortune 200 company, she fulfilled many roles from Human Resources to Operations to a corporate role in Learning and Development over fourteen years.

On the faculty of Purdue’s Certificate Program in Entrepreneurship and Innovation for seven years, Kris developed and taught a course on consulting, as well as a course entitled Your Entrepreneurial Career. Kris is also the author of author of Owning It: Take Control of Your Life, Work and Career and  The Leader’s Guide to Turbulent Times: a practical, easy-to-use guide to leading in today’s times. She holds a Master’s Degree from Krannert Business School at Purdue University and did her undergraduate work at West Virginia University.